On the Subscription Trail
Forget tea leaves. Corey Pein thinks magazine readers could swing Election '04.
ASSUMING what people read tells something about how they vote, consumer magazine circulation trends—particularly in the dozen states that swung the closest in 2000—could be the great overlooked predictor in a tight electoral race. Well, since no analyst really knows what's going on, making predictions based on subscriptions to popular politically slanted magazines makes as much sense as surveying "NASCAR dads" or shaking the Magic 8 Ball.
Looking at the upcoming election through the limited lens of the magazine business, things look good for the Democrats. Since 2001, subscriptions to three important anti-Bush magazines are up an average of 21 percent in the swing states, whereas subscriptions have stagnated among comparable pro-Bush magazines. But uncertainties remain. Will the dwindling membership of the National Rifle Association go to the polls without an exhortation from Charlton Heston? Can bigshot-New-York-liberal editors rally the masses? And what will Oprah do?
Here we consider six magazines, left-right counterparts of roughly equal circulation and with little overlap among subscribers: The Nation and The National Review, The New Yorker and American Hunter, Forbes and Vanity Fair. Plus one incredibly influential publication that, for now, remains on the fence—O Magazine. The twelve swing states chosen (Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin) all went for Gore/Nader or Bush/Buchanan in 2000 by a margin of less than five percent.
The Nation—D This rad-lib opinion journal has enjoyed impressive 33 percent growth nationwide since Bush took office, which translates to over 35,000 new subscriptions. Its progress has been even more dramatic in the swing states: between 40 and 66 percent. In Florida and Ohio—two tightly contested states that, put together, rival California in terms of electoral votes—The Nation gained nearly 3,000 new, politically active readers.
The National Review—R In the same two states, meanwhile, The National Review has acquired only 700 subscribers—far better than it has fared in the ten other battleground states. Subscriptions are down slightly all over the country, and they re barely moving where it counts. While Bush's reign has ignited the left, this far-right agitator has smoldered.
The New Yorker—D The 940,000 readers of The New Yorker live mainly on the deep-blue coasts. Its strongest swing-state growth has come in places with little power in the Electoral College, like New Hampshire and New Mexico. So, despite the fury of Hendrik Hertzberg's "Talk of the Town" pieces, these particular intelligentsia aren't likely to sway the outcome in 2004.
American Hunter—R This is where the similarly sized organ of the NRA comes in. In Florida, Missouri and Tennessee alone, nearly 13,000 fewer people are reading American Hunter, with its GOP heavy voter's guides. Membership has declined, and with it, perhaps, the number of Second Amendment enthusiasts getting riled up with each month's issue. Presumably these former members aren't switching parties and putting their saved dues into New Yorker subscriptions. But the Dems won't encourage them to re-enroll by talking loudly about gun control, either.
Forbes—R His last two campaigns were a joke to all except the very, very rich. But Steve Forbes—who got more than he dared propose, tax wise, from George W. Bush—still propagates his politics through the magazine founded by his father. His readers: wannabe billionaires who see (more than anyone, maybe, except for homophobes) great promise in a second Bush administration. The difference between Forbes' nationwide growth of 2 percent and its growth in certain battleground states is striking—25 percent in Iowa, 20 in Tennessee, 17 in Florida. Expect poll-site scuffles between armed retirees and kill-the-welfare-state goon squads, hopped-up on riches freshly squeezed from the middle class.
Vanity Fair—D The affluent, fashion-conscious readers of Vanity Fair are no longer treated to soft-focus photo spreads of senior administration officials. Nowadays, they get page after page of vitriol directed at Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and that collaborator, Michael Bloomberg. Unlike Forbes—where money is to be made rather than spent—Vanity Fair's circulation of over a million is expanding at about the same rate (5 percent) nationally as in the swing states. Which means the efforts of editor Graydon Carter to bring Bush down are probably in vain.
O Magazine—Undecided
The wildcard. Oprah Winfrey's influence is
waning in some of the areas where she has been
most loved—Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio. But
her 1.7 million-odd (women) readers vote
because Oprah tells them to vote. Now, she
doesn't tell them whom to vote for—she's got
more subtlety than that. The clincher seems
to be how the candidates treat Oprah when
they go on her show. Last time, Bush kissed
her and Gore didn't. Big mistake, Al! There were 94,000 O subscribers in Florida—you only needed a fraction of them.